Here's who I think will win, and who I think should win, in tonight's Academy Awards (Should win in bold, will win in italics):
Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
I've seen all five of the films in this category. Based on that I'm immediately taking Ruby Dee (she was only on screen for like 10 minutes in American Gangster) and Saoirse Ronan (I didn't much care for Atonement, or her performance) out of the equation. Tilda Swinton was very good in Michael Clayton, but not quite up to the level of the other two performances. I think it really comes down to Cate Blanchett and Amy Ryan. Both of them were excellent, but if I had to choose one I'd pick Cate Blanchett. Her portrayal of Bob Dylan was the strongest part of I'm Not There. But I think Amy Ryan probably will win, because people nominated in two categories (like Blanchett) usually split their vote and don't win either.
Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck, "The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward..."
Javier Bardem, "No Country For Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
Out of these films I've only seen No Country For Old Men and Michael Clayton, but I don't think it matters. Tom Wilkinson gives a wonderful performance and would probably win in most other years, but there's no chance that Javier Bardem isn't winning this year. His performance is amazing and terrifying. Genius work. There is not way he shouldn't win.
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie En Rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
I'm only one for five in this category (Juno), so I can't say much about it. As much as I'd like to see Ellen Page win it, I'm pretty sure her performance wasn't the best of the bunch, so I'll go with a lifetime achievement style award for Julie Christie.
Best Actor:
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Five for five here. All of them are very good performances. But one really stands out. Daniel Day-Lewis gives an amazing, transformative performance in There Will Be Blood. At times he's mesmerizing. The energy and brutality are transfixing. Best performance of the year, by far.
Adapted Screenplay:
Christopher Hampton, "Atonement"
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her"
Ronald Harwood, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
My personal choice here would be the Coen Brothers for No Country for Old Men. The writing in the film is amazing. Character, structure and dialogue are all spot on. But this may be the category that the Academy decides to honor something smaller, like The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
Original Screenplay:
Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco, "Ratatouille"
Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
This is where Juno should win its award. The screenplay was pretty amazing. I'd give it to it hands down. But there seems to be a bit of anti-Juno backlash so I'm going to say that Tony Gilroy will win it for Michael Clayton.
Best Director:
Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
The Coen Brothers would be my choice here. Their work on No Country for Old Men was amazing. It's a very good list of nominnes top to bottom, so I wouldn't really be disappointed if any of them won though.
Best Picture:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement has no chance. I wouldn't have even nominated it. Juno was my favorite movie out of this bunch, but not necessarily the best. I'd say that it comes down to No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood. Both good choices, but I'd choose No Country for Old Men. It was entertaining, beautiful and wonderfully made. Best picture of the year.
And that's it for my Oscar picks. I'm not going to even try on the other categories. If you want to read full reviews of any of the films I've seen, click here for a full list.